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OMAHA — A new Census-based report revealed a dramatic swing in what is driving Nebraskans to leave the state: Housing, namely the challenge of finding it, leapt past jobs as the top reason.
The shift was the crux of a report from the Center for Public Affairs Research at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, which examined a federal survey and other data.
“That’s shocking,” said Josie Schafer, who heads the research center. “I was the one saying, ‘It’s about jobs, it’s about jobs, it’s about jobs.’” Schafer said she repeatedly has told state policymakers and others in recent years that a job was the single biggest influencer on out-of-state flow. Indeed, such was the case in 2021, when a federal survey showed that nearly 35 percent of those who moved out of the state identified a job as the main reason for leaving, compared to about 18 percent who cited housing.
In contrast, though, the next year’s survey showed a lesser 12 percent who identified a job as being the primary factor for relocating to a different state — while the share that named housing as the driving force jumped to 34 percent.
“The winds have changed,” said Schafer.
UNO’s report is based on the Current Population Survey, which is sponsored jointly by the U.S. Census and Labor Bureaus and is the primary source for labor statistics. Responses indicated that about 32,000 Cornhuskers moved to a different state last year, researchers said. (That number can include youths in a household as well; not only workers.)
Three main reasons were offered as options for those who relocated: family, job and housing. While there was no box for, say, taxes or a state’s social and political climate, respondents could mark “other” — and the share that selected that option for moving out of Nebraska increased from 28 percent in 2021 to 36 percent the next year.
Reflected also in the UNO report is data from area real estate and other sources that helps shed light on availability, age and condition of housing stock across the state.
Schafer said her research team views the findings as a red flag alerting state officials to quickly get a better grip on housing conditions. A separate report released earlier this year and led by the Nebraska Investment Finance Authority, said housing availability and quality are critical in filling the workforce shortage threatening Nebraska’s growth.
Indeed, State Sen. Wendy DeBoer of Bennington said the Legislature’s planning committee, which she chairs, will consider both reports as it shapes future legislation and policy. DeBoer described as “eye-popping” the fast flip that propelled housing above jobs as a driving force behind Nebraskans relocating outside the state.
But housing was a growing concern even before that, she said, pointing to a survey of her colleagues that put it among the three most pressing problems in the state, along with child care and water issues. The UNO report, she said, reinforces the need to act.
Shannon Harner, executive director of the Nebraska Investment Housing Authority, agreed. Of the housing-related exodus, she said: “It was just a matter of time until housing became the No. 1 problem.”
The NIFA-led “Nebraska Strategic Housing Framework” plan released in January proclaimed that the economic future of the state hinged on solving the “housing crisis.” At that time, a “housing council” and several working committees of state, business and community leaders were formed.
Harner said the groups continue today to look for specific strategies and tools that can bolster housing choices. Among the plan’s overarching goals was creation of 35,000 affordable dwellings in the state over the next five years.
Both Harner and the UNO study said, however, that demand exists beyond housing accessible to low- to middle-income workers. Harner said there’s a need for a variety of housing, including higher-end luxury homes in rural parts of the state trying to recruit professional talent.
“We really don’t have places to put people in the jobs that are open,” she said. “If we can’t solve the housing problem, we’re never going to solve the jobs problem.”
Among other growth hindrances UNO researchers described in their report, which was prepared in large part with the legislative planning committee in mind: On average across the state, only two percent of housing units are for sale or rent, while the Nebraska Realtors Association defines seven to eight percent as a healthy rental vacancy rate. When it comes to for-sale homes, a healthy inventory is an amount typically sold over a six-month period, but August data showed a statewide supply of about one month. Nebraska was one of only four states with an inventory of less than two months.
The share of relatively newer homes — those built since 2000 — is a fraction of all properties statewide, even in larger and growing counties. For example, in Douglas County, that relatively newer housing stock makes up 21.1 percent, in Sarpy, 38.7 percent; Lancaster, 24 percent; Hall 14 percent.
“In summary, housing availability, particularly of quality homes, is highly restricted throughout Nebraska in both metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties,” said the UNO report.
If not addressed, the researchers said, the state could expect ongoing problems with population attraction and retention.
